Security and diplomacy analyst Prof. Mulumba Alex has argued that the AFC/M23 rebel movement would need to expand its control into key economic regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) if it hopes to strengthen its position in future diplomatic negotiations.
Speaking to Rwandatribune, Prof. Mulumba said AFC/M23 and Rwanda should not rely on the United States as a neutral mediator, claiming that Washington has already demonstrated where its interests lie.
According to him, sanctions against Rwanda and AFC/M23 are likely to increase, while the Kinshasa government, the Wazalendo militias and the FDLR continue to operate without similar pressure. He argued that although the United States understands the conflict, its primary objective remains access to the DRC’s mineral wealth, as it has pursued in other countries.
As peace efforts between the conflicting parties in the DRC continue to face setbacks, Prof. Mulumba questioned whether a movement controlling only a limited territory can maintain significant influence in negotiations against a government that controls most of the country.
Referring to the ongoing peace talks in Doha, Qatar, and other mediation initiatives, he said the Kinshasa government has repeatedly failed to honour agreements reached during previous negotiations.
He said AFC/M23 had demonstrated goodwill by releasing prisoners of war as agreed, while, according to him, the Congolese government instead intensified military operations, including drone strikes that allegedly killed civilians in Minembwe and Masisi.
Prof. Mulumba further claimed that recent developments suggest the Congolese government has escalated the conflict. He cited remarks by President Félix Tshisekedi during his visit to the United States, in which the president said government forces were defeating their enemy and preparing to retake Goma and Bukavu.
The analyst also argued that the international community has shown bias. He said the United States imposed sanctions on AFC/M23 leaders and Rwanda, while, in his view, the Kinshasa government has not faced comparable measures.
According to Prof. Mulumba, Kinshasa’s diplomatic confidence is largely driven by its economic importance. He pointed to the DRC’s partnerships with Western countries in the extraction of copper, cobalt and coltan, arguing that these strategic minerals are essential for modern technology and the clean energy transition, making Western governments reluctant to distance themselves from Kinshasa.
For these reasons, he believes President Tshisekedi’s administration views the peace process primarily as a way to buy time, convinced that it has already secured the diplomatic advantage.
Katanga: Targeting Kinshasa’s Economic Backbone
Prof. Mulumba described Katanga Province as the foundation of the Congolese economy because of its vast copper and cobalt resources.
He argued that if AFC/M23 were to expand its military operations into the province, it could threaten the government’s main source of revenue, disrupt international mineral supply chains and compel Kinshasa’s international partners to push for meaningful negotiations.
Tshopo: Controlling Strategic Transport Routes
The analyst also identified Tshopo Province, home to the city of Kisangani, as a strategic transport hub connected to the Congo River.
He said that if AFC/M23 gained control of the area, it could disrupt military and logistical supply routes linking Kinshasa to eastern DRC, thereby strengthening its negotiating position.
Maniema: Access to Military Positions and Mineral Wealth
Prof. Mulumba said Maniema Province is rich in gold and tin and also holds strategic military importance.
According to him, expanding operations there would weaken the positions of the Congolese armed forces (FARDC) and their allies, including Wazalendo and the FDLR, while opening a route closer to Kinshasa.
Political Considerations
Prof. Mulumba argued that AFC/M23 also has political reasons for continuing its campaign.
He claimed that President Félix Tshisekedi sought to amend the Constitution to extend his rule, adding that opposition parties, civil society organisations and the Catholic bishops’ conference (CENCO) criticised the proposal, leading to widespread protests.
He warned that unless the military situation changes, the conflict could continue for a prolonged period, resulting in further casualties on all sides.
Conclusion
Prof. Mulumba concluded that AFC/M23 would only gain meaningful leverage in peace negotiations by expanding its military operations into Tshopo, Katanga and Maniema.
He argued that such a development would:
– Strengthen AFC/M23’s bargaining position in negotiations.
– Increase pressure on the Kinshasa government to engage in genuine power-sharing talks.
– Encourage Western countries to engage directly with AFC/M23 because of their economic interests.
He concluded that, in his view, the time for waiting and issuing statements has passed, and that expanding military operations across the country is the only path towards a lasting political solution.
By Mwizerwa Ally
Rwandatribune
