As the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues searching for a path to end the war in the eastern part of the country, the renewed visibility of politicians associated with former President Joseph Kabila has reignited debate about Congo’s political future.
The emergence of a coalition linked to Kabila’s political legacy, including figures such as Moïse Nyarugabo, comes at a time when President Félix Tshisekedi’s administration is facing mounting security challenges, particularly the activities of AFC/M23 in the Kivu provinces.
Analysts say the development could signal a broader reconfiguration of political forces in the DRC, as the country struggles to secure lasting peace.
Kabila: A Political Legacy That Continues to Shape Debate
Joseph Kabila led the DRC from 2001 to 2019 before handing power to Félix Tshisekedi. Although he has largely remained out of day-to-day politics, people close to him continue to play a role in discussions about the nation’s future.
Supporters of this political camp argue that the DRC needs inclusive national dialogue that goes beyond confrontation between the government and the opposition. They believe some political actors and sections of the population have not been given sufficient space in the country’s governance since the transfer of power.
Critics, however, contend that the re-emergence of a Kabila-aligned coalition could be an attempt to rebuild political influence in opposition to Tshisekedi, especially at a time when the country is facing serious security crises.
Tshisekedi and the Security Test
Under President Félix Tshisekedi, the conflict in eastern DRC has become the greatest test of his presidency.
Although his government has prioritized restoring state authority and combating armed groups, AFC/M23 has continued to maintain a significant presence on the ground, raising concerns among local communities and international partners.
Opponents of the government argue that this reflects weaknesses in the state’s ability to protect civilians and fully control parts of the national territory.
For its part, the Kinshasa government maintains that the M23 crisis is closely linked to regional security dynamics and continues to accuse Rwanda of supporting the movement. Kigali rejects the allegation, insisting that the eastern DRC crisis requires a political solution and guarantees for the security of all communities, rather than continued mutual accusations.
AFC/M23: Between War and Negotiations
AFC/M23 remains a central actor in the Congolese crisis because of both its military strength and its influence in parts of eastern DRC.
The movement says it is fighting to address issues such as poor governance, insecurity, and historical grievances affecting some communities in the Kivus.
However, Tshisekedi’s government considers AFC/M23 an armed group that must first cease hostilities and withdraw from occupied areas before any political negotiations can take place.
This disagreement has become one of the main obstacles delaying peace talks, as the two sides differ on what should come first: political dialogue or military de-escalation.
Could the Kabila Coalition Change the Political Landscape?
Some analysts believe a coalition associated with Kabila could contribute to a broader multi-party political dialogue.
It could potentially help:
bring together opposition groups;
Others, however, argue that it could also become a vehicle for renewed political competition between former ruling elites and the current administration.
Much will depend on its future actions: whether it focuses on peacebuilding and national reconciliation, or on rebuilding political influence for a future struggle for power.
Lasting Peace Requires More Than Military Victory
Analysts increasingly argue that sustainable peace in the DRC will not come from the victory of a single armed group or from military force alone.
They say the country needs:
inclusive political dialogue involving all stakeholders connected to the crisis;
For many residents of North Kivu and South Kivu, the most urgent concern is not the rivalry between political leaders, but security, the ability to return home, and access to governance that protects their rights and livelihoods.
A Country at a Crossroads
The renewed visibility of a coalition linked to Joseph Kabila, while Félix Tshisekedi continues to confront the AFC/M23 challenge, highlights the extent to which the DRC is experiencing a period of major political and security transformation.
Although each side has its own vision for ending the conflict, it is becoming increasingly clear that lasting peace will require dialogue that goes beyond military confrontation, prioritizes the interests of citizens, and strengthens regional cooperation.
As regional and international peace initiatives continue, attention is now focused on whether Kabila, Tshisekedi, and other Congolese political actors will choose compromise and national reconciliation, or whether the DRC will enter another phase of political rivalry that could deepen tensions across the country.
engage civil society actors;
stronger regional cooperation on security;
address eastern Congo’s urgent challenges, including security, justice, and development;
reforms that address governance and representation;
provide a platform for discussing how the conflict could be resolved through political means rather than military confrontation;
long-term efforts to restore public trust in state institutions.
help rebuild trust between the DRC and neighboring countries to enable regional security cooperation.
Mwizerwa Ally
Rwandatribune.rw
