Peace Agreement Barometer yatangaje ko ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’Amasezerano y’Amahoro ya Washington yashyizweho umukono hagati ya Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Congo (RDC) n’u Rwanda, ku bufasha bwa Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, rikomeje kugenda gahoro kubera kutumvikana gukomeje kugaragara ku bijyanye no gusobanura no gushyira mu bikorwa ibyo impande zombi ziyemeje.
Ibi ni ibyagaragajwe muri raporo y’iri huriro ry’impuguke yigenga yasuzumye uko ayo masezerano yateye imbere hagati ya tariki ya 1 na 31 Nyakanga 2026.
Iyo raporo igaragaza ko ukwezi kwa Nyakanga kwatangiranye n’umwaka wa kabiri w’ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’amasezerano yasinywe ku wa 27 Kamena 2025, ariko ko kutaranzwe n’iterambere rikomeye mu bikorwa byari biteganyijwe.
Abasesenguzi bagaragaza ko hari ibikorwa bike byakozwe muri icyo gihe, ariko ko bitari bihagije kugira ngo bihindure ishusho rusange y’amasezerano.
Ni yo mpamvu igipimo cy’ishyirwa mu bikorwa cyakomeje kuba ku kigero cya 35%, kingana n’amanota 105 kuri 300, nk’uko byari bimeze mu mpera za Kamena 2026.
Nta terambere rikomeye ku nshingano 30 z’amasezerano
Raporo ivuga ko mu nshingano 30 zashyizwe mu masezerano ya Washington, izigera kuri 22 zari zaratangiye gushyirwa mu bikorwa ku rwego rutandukanye mbere y’uko Kamena irangira.
Gusa ngo kugeza ku wa 31 Nyakanga 2026, nta terambere rikomeye ryagaragaye, bityo amanota rusange y’amasezerano akaba yaragumye kuri 105/300.
Ku ruhande rwa RDC, raporo igaragaza ko ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’amasezerano rihagaze kuri 31,7%, aho ifite amanota 82,5 kuri 260.
U Rwanda rwo rufite igipimo cya 30,6%, bingana n’amanota 67,5 kuri 220.
Ku ruhande rw’abafatanyabikorwa mpuzamahanga barimo Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, Qatar, ubuhuza bw’Umuryango wa Afurika Yunze Ubumwe (AU), imiryango ya Loni n’abandi bafatanyabikorwa, raporo igaragaza ko bo bageze kuri 53,5%, bunganya amanota 37,5 kuri 70.
Kutumvikana ku bibazo by’umutekano bikomeje kubangamira amasezerano
Nubwo hari imibare igaragaza aho amasezerano ageze, impuguke zirasaba kwitondera ko kutumvikana hagati y’impande birebwa n’amasezerano bishobora gutuma ihagarara burundu.
Raporo yibanda cyane ku ngingo ebyiri z’ingenzi z’umutekano:
Gukuraho ingamba z’ubwirinzi z’u Rwanda, aho RDC isobanura ko bijyanye no kuvana ingabo z’u Rwanda ku butaka bwa Congo.
Guhagarika ibikorwa by’umutwe wa FDLR, inshingano raporo ivuga ko RDC igomba gushyira mu bikorwa.
Abasesenguzi bavuga ko impande zombi zigifite imyumvire itandukanye kuri izi ngingo, bikaba bikomeje gutinza ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’amasezerano.
Raporo ivuga ko uko ibintu byifashe hagati ya Kamena na Nyakanga 2026 bishobora gutuma hatangira indi minsi yo guhagarara kw’ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’amasezerano, nk’uko byigeze kubaho hagati ya Ukuboza 2025 na Gashyantare 2026.
Amerika yanenze kudashyirwa mu bikorwa kw’imyanzuro
Iyi si yo nshuro ya mbere hagaragazwa impungenge ku buryo aya masezerano ari gushyirwa mu bikorwa.
Muri Kamena 2026, ubwo ikibazo cy’umutekano mu burasirazuba bwa RDC cyaganirwaga mu Kanama k’Umuryango w’Abibumbye gashinzwe Umutekano i New York, Massad Boulos yavuze ko impande zombi zitigeze zuzuza neza ibyo ziyemeje.
Yavuze ko Kinshasa itari yateye intambwe ihagije mu guhagarika ibikorwa bya FDLR mu bice birebwa n’amasezerano, mu gihe Kigali yashinjwaga gukomeza kugira ingabo muri RDC no gushyigikira umutwe wa AFC/M23.
Uyu muyobozi w’Abanyamerika yasabye impande zombi kwihutisha ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’ibyo ziyemeje, avuga ko gutinda cyangwa gutanga impamvu bitagikwiye.
Yanavuze ko Amerika izakomeza gufatira ibihano abantu cyangwa imiyoboro yose ibangamira inzira y’amahoro mu burasirazuba bwa RDC, harimo abayobozi b’ingabo n’abagize uruhare mu bucuruzi butemewe bw’amabuye y’agaciro.
Impungenge ku hazaza h’amasezerano
Mu gihe hakomeje guhamagarwa ku rwego rw’igihugu, akarere ndetse n’amahanga ko impande zose zubahiriza ibyo zasinyiye, kugeza ubu nta mpinduka ikomeye iragaragara.
Raporo ishimangira ko hakomeje kubaho icyuho hagati y’iterambere rya dipolomasi rikorwa ku mpapuro n’uko ibintu bimeze ku butaka.
Impande zombi zikomeje gusobanura ingingo z’amasezerano ya Washington mu buryo butandukanye, ibintu bituma abasesenguzi bavuga ko ejo hazaza h’ishyirwa mu bikorwa ryayo hakomeje kuba hatizewe.
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